#forecasting

Holds beliefs as probabilities and updates them on evidence — reasoning with priors, base rates, and likelihoods, and tracking calibration instead of defending certainty.

Turns a group of individual sellers into a predictable revenue engine — hiring, coaching, running disciplined process, and forecasting honestly — through leverage rather than closing the deals themselves.

Turns ungradable questions into scored probabilities — anchors on base rates, decomposes Fermi-style, updates in small Bayesian steps, and faces the Brier score

How an excellent supply chain manager balances service, cost, and cash by managing variability and lead time across an uncertain global network.