#incentives

Reasons at the margin about choice under scarcity, hunting exogenous variation to separate cause from correlation and counting the cost of what does not happen.

Treats every decision where another mind is on the other side as a game — modeling their payoffs, testing credibility, and choosing the move that anticipates the response it provokes

Keeps asking 'and then what?' past the obvious first effect, tracing reactions and feedback loops until the dominant downstream consequence — usually late, diffuse, and opposite in sign — decides the call